your behavior is impacted by the company you keep …
humans think, act & behave similar to people they keep the company.
it is important to stay in the company of smart & successful people, as mind picks up things both consciously and sub-consciously; we act and think like the people surrounding us … this group of people (i call as little Universe) also influences our behavior.
it’s not about correlation, but about the variables …
said by Prof. Heineke of Microeconomics at SCU.
when a couple goes for a therapy, what do you think the shrink tries to do .. based on his experience or research, he is trying to find a correlation between the two [human behavior set] … his assumption: if it works for so many, it would not work for these two, or for that matter any two … well, my suggestion to all the shrinks … learn microeconomics … if we have large enough data set, there is a good chance that the variables in those data set will have some correlation, but does it make sense to find a correlation between them in first place ..? i.e. did you choose the right variables ..?
if we choose wrong variables, the correlation does not make sense, no matter how perfect its R2 or t-stats values are … similarly, based on past data, students of economics or investments may present a case showing the correlation between two random variables (search google for butterfly effect on this) … but as soon as the model is used in real, it breaks apart … why ..?
it’s not about correlation, but about choosing the right variables .
there is a mini-Hitler in all of us .. except maybe the person who is reading this text ..!
if i understood Hitler correctly, his thinking was that a specific race needed to be fixed, and hence the solution (according to him) was to eliminate it altogether .. on the contrary, as per Sadhguru, the world needs no fixing, all that needs to be fixed is within an individual (inward versus outward) .. & hence the concept of inner-engineering by him .. but the question is how does a person like Hitler develops (hindsight versus foresight) … and as i started analyzing this topic, i find it in all of us .. e.g. within a married couple, husbands thinks that wife need fixing, and of course, wife believes that husband needs fixing .. & both of have been trying forever… obviously with no success … but the fact may be that neither of them need fixing, rather the observer needs to clear his lens before he looks at the world; i.e. all that needs to be fixed is within you ..!
although this example explains this behavior at the smallest level, but when an individual start believing that some or part of the world needs fixing, you are looking for a Hitler in making .. bottom-line, there is a mini-Hitler in all of us .. ok, except the person reading this paragraph ..!
the world doesn’t need fixing …
as one acquires knowledge, wealth & status [in excess], & has some to spare, it becomes his mission to provide a fix for everyone .. instead it becomes miserable situation for himself because world doesn’t need fixing .. take it as it is .. thanks to Sadhguru for this profound statement … everything exists and works as such for a reason … which creates a balance in nature .. as humans don’t push to change anything.
& the other side of the story is, anyone who wants to do something for himself, the options are out there … case in point is yours truly … the motivation has to come from within … pushing people to a level beyond their individual reach causes tensions on both side .. & i have learned hard way in my own life … so, leave them alone … it will be healthy for both the parties.
it also doesn’t mean that people should stop doing good cause work .. but somehow it needs to be pulled by the receiver, and not pushed onto him … plus, the receiver should be ready to return the support [to someone else] in future to make it a continuous and possibly a compounding growth process.
if you wanna live happy, stay away from unhappy people
first, it is a nice contrarian principle .. second, there is so much abundance & so many opportunities in this world that staying unhappy is an individual’s choice .. third, if you desire something in this world, try becoming smarter than others, work harder than others, & you can achieve almost anything … on the contrary, people who just compare their situation to others and complain all the time are neither happy themselves nor they will let you … plus, they will give you really bad investment advice.
if you wanna live a productive life .. stop competing with others
in reverse, build relationship with people those who are not competing with you …
first, you should never stop learning and improving yourself – i.e. your only competition should be with yourself … what others do or don’t should have no bearing on you as it simply causes tension in your life .. & you may be focusing on totally wrong things, which means you are wasting your energy and productivity.
let me start with business world … companies that become successful cannibalize or continue improving their own product/service … think about Amazon, Apple & Google … then there were companies like Sun Micro systems that had an enormous success but decided to compete with Microsoft by launching Solaris for PC and Java, yes, with Java, they got the entry into PC, but Intel & IBM ate Sun’s lunch … the strategy totally misfired … OTOH, Jeff Bezos used to say that the brick and mortar companies (like Walmart & Barnes & Noble) had something that he didn’t – customers … they had a 20 years advantage for Amazon to catch up, but they didn’t focus on customers – who is looking for a commodity product at best prices and convenience .. Amazon started with nothing and is eating everybody’s lunch.
similarly, in a family whether there is a husband wife situation or sibling rivalry, competition between two people is not productive and in general ends up breaking the relationship, rather each person should use his/her own strengths and continue to improve.
bottom-line, focus on yourself .. your only competition should be with Yourself ..!
politics – a behavioral perspective
in a group (more than one person), politics is showing alignment with the group, but having a personal agenda/goal(s), which is not aligned .. it’s that simple.
on the contrary, in a business organization or family, if everyone is aligned behind the same vision/goals, then it becomes a powerful situation.
complicated [human] problems can’t be solved ..!
it’s not that people are not smart enough, but due to the fact that complicated problems involve complicated people who have complicated agenda … which feed back into the problem and make it more complicated … e.g. the partition of India happened not due to problems between Hindus and Muslims, rather a country can’t have two prime ministers, who incidentally went after the same women … should make you wonder about the real problem ..! .. so, to have two prime ministers, we had to divide the country.
watch the documentary “disturbing the peace” on Netflix .. it’s about an effort between Israelis and Palestinians to bring people together to figure out the issue itself ..?
have you ever heard the phrase from your boss, “i have hired you to solve problems ..” which roughly translates into “i have hired you to solve the problems that i (the boss) have created ..” which makes you wonder, why the problems exist in first place, when the boss is already familiar with it, and possibly has been around for some time … so you know what to do if you wanna stay in the job … do whatever you need to, but keep the boss in mind because it’s either your boss or someone higher up in command is the problem itself … & guess what, i never cared of this and that’s why i am, where i am & no regrets ..!
be doubtful when people claim that they have solved a complicated problem; like Obamacare, which Democrats think will be a mess, if Republicans touch it … the problems become complicated in people’s head or by involving more people who have no relevance in context of the problem .. OTOH, the beauty & purpose of the mind is to simply the problem first and then look for a solution … people, in general, do the reverse.
the affordable health care act is everything but affordable … let media give some goddamn credit to President Trump for attacking drug makers [mar 2017] … for an affordable healthcare, the drugs prices have to go down first and that’s what Trump is hitting … & not by more people consuming more drugs or squeezing the healthy people to pay for sick people – Obama style … rather, healthcare should be addressed as one step at a time in right direction & you will reach your destination.
similarly, i have experienced many mainframe migration and other big IT projects [in late 1990s] either fail or become blunders as people try to solve them at once .. rather than simply using a modular approach … is it so hard to understand..? but then big promotions and bonuses are not given for small projects and so is big pay checks to consultants … which is normal but irrational human behavior.
“i don’t know” can save lots of hassles in future …
having worked in corporate life for 25 years, i have seen more mess than one can imagine … there are several reasons why a mess is created and than it takes equal or more effort to clean it up … but here is one prominent reason that i recall .. it is people NOT using “i don’t know” … in an open culture like United States (unlike Japan) people feel compelled to share ideas in a group setting even when they have no understanding of the problem (possibly just to impress their boss or other people) and/or have no experience of solving it .. & unless they get shut out, the ideas become options & from options people choose solution(s) & unless it is thought through, it turns into a mess.
life will be much better, if people should keep their mouth shut, or use the “i don’t know”, when they have no clue .. as more often than not, such free flowing ideas become big mess in future.
women make less money than man … really ..?
if this is a fact, don’t you think that the businesses will only hire women, especially when labor is a major cost of people oriented businesses in USA … studies show that women are paid 77 cents to a dollar in comparison to men; so hiring only women would solve every corporate manager’s budget problem … whereas in my experience of 20+ years in corporate world, each manager fights for every nickel & dime.
hey, you just got a 23% advantage .. really ?
in this lonely world, we all crave for family to support us …
but it’s not a family unless you meet, talk and share each day … not weekly, not annually on Holidays, or saying Happy B’day; liking pictures on FB doesn’t make a family ..!
hiding truth from others doesn’t make a family .. its manipulation, commonly used in corporate world .. your work place is not a family, although your CEO/manager may like you to think that way.
democracy is overrated in today’s world
in Greece, where democracy was born. there is a huge piece of stone where people gathered in ancient times, shared their opinions, arguments were held, and then voting was cast to make a decision …
the process assumes
1) everyone participates
2) you have all the information available and
3) of course, each person is capable to make a decision in his/her interest …
now, let’s contrast the situation in today’s world
1) not everyone votes … plus, we have the issue of electoral versus popular vote … & in a situation like Brexit where one side wins by small number of votes becomes questionable, as it all depends upon people from which side voted more.
2) do people really have all the information or we believe what’s shown on TV .. The TV channels and other media outlets already have affiliation with political parties & on top of that people follow an ideology, which means that they are already biased with an issue – think about abortion as an issue in USA – & based on the daily news/soap opera, people swing between Hillary & Trump (2016), as whosoever got bad press on that day
3) can people really make a complicated (economic) decision on whether or not Brexit will help or hurt Britain (as written in 2016) .?
only time will tell …
one of the flaws of today’s society is that we live in future
where will you be in five years from now?
what are you planning next?
where are you going for your next vacation?
we are always looking into & living in future & not … what are you doing now? what do you possess/own now & are you enjoying what you have?
& a 180 deg opposite of this is live like there is no tomorrow – as in 1970s … both have their side-effects.
the hardest part is have a thought process that stays in present and without thinking or borrowing from future because its the easiest thing possible … rather dealing with your problem(s) and situation in present with what you have, is the hardest thing & to accomplish that you must reduce or simplify your problem, so it can be dealt in present, with what you have.
so, are you a normal or a rational person ?
hopefully, you got a good idea on which side you fall more … because there are rational and normal behaviors at the end & all 50 shades of grey in between … now, how is it relevant to investing/trading ?
the point of sharing all the above is for you to understand your own behavior; i.e. “who you are” and how truthful you are to yourself ..? e.g. you need to understand why do you use the phrase .. “to be honest with you ..” assuming you do.
are you truthful to yourself ..? … because if you are truthful, then you should have “no fear from God” … another commonly used phrase by the people … okay, if you feel shy to answer this question, let me try it differently .. do you think you are a rational or a normal (irrational) person .? … the answer to these questions are important to know before you analyze market’s behavior and use an investment strategy.
how so ..?
if you know you are a rational person & you are truthful to yourself, then you do not need to follow or worry about what others are doing, you go with your own straight thinking, versus if you are not truthful to yourself, which is really hard to admit, then, as a normal person, you look for an advice of an investment professional, and the professional suggests to follow a contrarian thinking, which simply means walking on your head … & that’s why its so hard to follow … make sense ..!
too complicated .. let’s try again … say your are a normal person, which most of you are – the exceptions are folks like Buffett & Munger, who are not NORMAL, but RATIONAL – then you need to follow a contrarian thinking for your investment, as you don’t follow rational principles; however, most of you think that you are rational (which happened to be opposite of normal in financial context), and follow a straight thinking, which is NOT TRUE; therefore, end up getting below average results … sounds confusing … yes, it is .. but try reading this paragraph couple of times … read it in slow motion, and you will get it .. eventually ..!
let me finish this section with a scene from the movie Rounders, which is about the game of poker starring Matt Damon … here is the conversation that goes between Matt Damon and the taxi driver in the last scene of the movie, as Matt is leaving New York:
taxi driver: so, where you headed ..?
Matt Damon: I’m goin’ to Vegas
taxi driver: Vegas, huh! … , … Good luck, Man!
Matt Damon : people insist on calling it luck (inner voice) … , … Thanks !